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Philip Wilson Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Gore Point
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 SP 13/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Gore Point (SR:119, 7/4) has by far the strongest course record in this field — W2P2 at Newton Abbot — which matters enormously on a specialist track. The recent form string 2-2111 shows three consecutive wins leading into this run, indicating peak form, and Sam Twiston-Davies (14% career SR) is a competent booking. Despite carrying top-weight at 11-10 and drifting 28% in the market, the course expertise and hot winning sequence outweigh Ice Jet's superior SR, since Ice Jet (SR:129) comes with DistFit:- at this trip, a void race last time, and is stepping up a class off a mark 11lb higher than its last win. The drift on Gore Point is a concern but likely reflects the class rise and weight; the underlying evidence remains convincing. Each-way alternative: Ice Jet. Main danger: Ice Jet — Ice Jet carries the highest SR in the field at 129, has the powerful Dan/Harry Skelton yard firing at 21%/27% with a 7% market shortening, and if the distance concern proves unfounded on good ground the superior ability could simply overpower Gore Point's course familiarity.
Full result
Winner: Gore Point (GB) at SP 13/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Gore Point Fox #1 13/8
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2
Ice Jet Fox #2 4/5
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3
Cobbler's Boy 14/1
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4
Hooper Fox #3 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3