← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
#Matchbook Loves Racing Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Under The Twilight
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 SP 7/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Under The Twilight (SR:93, 11/2) carries the highest SR in the field and has a decisive weight advantage — 9-7 against top-weight Ray Mon Dough on 10-3, a 10lb edge that is enormous in a competitive Class 4 handicap over 6f. The GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good-to-firm conditions, and Course:W2P3 shows this Windsor specialist knows the track intimately better than nearly any other runner. The recent form 624412 shows a second last time out at this exact class level, and a modest 6% market move inward suggests quiet stable confidence rather than hype. Running off a mark 7lb higher than his last win is the one concern, but the weight advantage over the SR leader and the course-and-distance expertise outweigh that reservation. Each-way alternative: Cashbox. Main danger: Cashbox — Cashbox (SR:88, 11/2) has steamed in 34% in the market — the strongest move in the field — carries a very light 9-3, shows GoingFit:+ on today's fast surface, and at age 3 in a field of older horses may well be the most progressive runner present, making that sharp market move hard to ignore.
Full result
Winner: Under The Twilight (GB) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Under The Twilight Fox #1 11/2
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2
Tenbob Tommy 8/1
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3
Lequinto Fox #4 17/2
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4
Amazonian Dream 17/2
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5
Buccabay Fox #3 11/2
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6
Waistcoat 9/1
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7
Righthere Rightnow 15/2
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8
Ray Mon Dough 9/4
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—
Cashbox Fox #2 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Under The Twilight 11/2 SP 7/2 🏆 WON
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2
Cashbox 11/2
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3
Buccabay 8/1 5TH
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4
Lequinto 11/1 🥉 3RD