← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Belle Le Grand
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Belle Le Grand (SR 97, 4/1) carries the strongest combination of signals in this field despite the 9% market drift. The Skelton yard (21% trainer SR, Harry Skelton 27% jockey SR) is among the most powerful NH operations in Britain, and crucially Belle Le Grand is the only runner with both DistFit:+ AND GoingFit:+ — proven at this trip and confirmed on good ground. Wgt:11-10 is fair relative to the top-weight My Friend Sean (SR 97, 12-0), giving Belle Le Grand a 4lb weight advantage at identical ability ratings. The form string 6-1657 shows a recent win (rightmost digits: 7,5,6,1 left-to-right, so the win is the fourth-most-recent run), but the Skelton booking on a horse with confirmed course-and-distance suitability in conditions it handles is the decisive signal. The drift is a concern but the Skeltons do not run horses in this grade without confidence, and no rival matches this profile across multiple categories. Each-way alternative: Ghasham. Main danger: Ghasham — Ghasham (SR 97, 4/1) holds Course:W1P1 at Market Rasen, shares the top SR rating, and carries 3lb less than My Friend Sean, though GoingFit:- and a mark 3lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+3) plus a class rise (↑1) are genuine checks on confidence.
Full result
Winner: Gower Prince (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Gower Prince 11/1
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2
Miss Denver Fox #4 8/1
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3
Ghasham Fox #2 4/1
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4
Clean Getaway 15/2
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5
My Friend Sean Fox #3 9/2
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6
Dog Fox 4/1
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7
Belle Le Grand Fox #1 9/2
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8
Genbu 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4