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Mr Fox’s call
Arcturus Flame
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Arcturus Flame (SR 83, 7/4) leads the field on ability and drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), which is a straightforward positive in a four-runner Class 5 handicap. Cieren Fallon at 20% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the race, and the tongue-piece (tp) headgear suggests connections have a plan for this horse. Proven at today's trip (DistFit:+) is a critical edge in a 1m3f104y contest where the two market co-leaders (Zachary Hickes and Arcturus Flame share 7/4) both have unknown distance profiles — except Arcturus Flame has already answered the distance question affirmatively. Divot carries the four-star AI rating and excellent course form but has drifted a substantial 29% and is stepping UP in class off a mark 5lb higher than his last win, making that recent '11' form less reliable at this elevated level. Each-way alternative: Zachary Hickes. Main danger: Zachary Hickes — Zachary Hickes (SR 78, 7/4) drops two classes (ClassMv:↓2) and has shortened 10% in the market — the only genuine steamer in the field — suggesting Roger Varian's yard believes this lightly-raced four-year-old is well handicapped at this level, and if the drop in class unlocks improvement his proximity on SR to Arcturus Flame makes him the most dangerous rival.
Full result
Winner: Zachary Hickes (GB) at SP 6/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Zachary Hickes Fox #2 9/4
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2
Arcturus Flame Fox #1 6/5
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3
Divot Fox #3 4/1
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4
Good Onya Mate 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3