← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Green Sky
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 34%
Mr Fox says
Green Sky (SR:90, 7/2) arrives on the back of a four-timer — form reads /45111 — and has been backed from 9/2 to 7/2, a 25% market move that signals strong stable confidence. The DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm she handles this trip on good-to-firm ground, which is not something any of the three-year-olds can claim with the same authority (Counter Intuitive and Ruby Wedding both show GoingFit:? and DistFit:?). Yes, she steps up a class (ClassMv:↑1) and runs off a mark 8lb higher than her last win, but Oisin Murphy (21% career strike rate) booking on a market mover more than compensates for those headwinds. At 9-12 she carries just 9lb over the light-weighted three-year-olds yet has a meaningfully superior recent run-sequence to justify it. Each-way alternative: Counter Intuitive. Main danger: Counter Intuitive — Counter Intuitive (SR:90, 9/4) carries the same SR as Green Sky but holds a 6lb weight advantage (9-3 vs 9-9) and arrives on the back of back-to-back wins (Form: 8-611), and at the favourite's price the market clearly believes she is the more progressive three-year-old despite unproven going and distance credentials.
Full result
Winner: Ruby Wedding (GB) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ruby Wedding Fox #3 7/2
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2
Gloryous 12/1
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3
Liveinthelight 15/2
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4
Green Sky Fox #1 9/4
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5
Percy's Daydream 20/1
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6
Rossa Raheen 8/1
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7
Counter Intuitive Fox #2 11/4
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Model Yuko -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3