← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Newcomers' "Confined" Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses Which Have Never Run) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Lex Victoria
MEDIUM Advised 15/8 SP 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Lex Victoria carries the highest SR in the field at 154, a clear step above the joint-second rated Thi Qar and Watch Party (both SR 153), and is trained by Simon & Ed Crisford whose 20% career strike rate is the best in this field. The Crisford yard is extremely well-equipped for juvenile debut winners at Newmarket July course, and the market reflects genuine confidence: already favourite at 15/8 with a 10% inward move since opening. The tongue-tie application (HG:t) on debut signals the yard has done serious work at home and wants the filly fully switched on first time — a purposeful declaration. Against the likes of Godspeed Girl (drifted 23%) and Rubyroo (drifted 35%), the directional market signals strongly favour Lex Victoria as the horse connections are running to win. Each-way alternative: Thi Qar. Main danger: Thi Qar — Thi Qar matches Lex Victoria's SR at 153 and is trained by the formidable John & Thady Gosden yard (24% career strike rate — highest in the field), with only a modest 5% inward market move suggesting quiet rather than overt confidence, but Gosden's record with well-bred juvenile fillies at Newmarket July makes this a live danger at 10/3.
Full result
Winner: Lex Victoria (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lex Victoria Fox #1 5/2
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2
Thi Qar Fox #2 4/1
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3
Watch Party Fox #3 3/1
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4
Just Scarlet Fox #4 10/1
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5
Godspeed Girl 8/1
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6
Harlequin Dream 16/1
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Rubyroo 15/2
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Danse Royale -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4