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BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Ascending Star
MEDIUM Advised 15/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Ascending Star (SR 94, 15/8) edges Desert Shadow on raw ability despite identical SR scores, carrying 9-5 versus Desert Shadow's 10-2 — a meaningful 11lb weight advantage that more than offsets any marginal SR difference. The form string 33-13 shows a last-run victory, proven distance fitness (DistFit:+), and a course placing to boot; crucially the market has shortened 6% since opening, suggesting informed confidence. Running at the same class (ClassMv:=) means this is not a horse being stretched — it's a progressive 3yo operating in a comfort zone, backed by Owen Burrows (18% strike rate, solid yard) and Callum Rodriguez at 17% career win rate. Each-way alternative: Desert Shadow. Main danger: Desert Shadow — Desert Shadow (SR 93, 9/4) has the joint-highest SR, is proven on good-to-firm going (GoingFit:+), is trained by Saeed bin Suroor with Oisin Murphy aboard — one of the strongest jockey bookings in the field — and is dropping a class; the weight burden of 10-2 is the chief concern but the form 2-0521 on a visor switch shows progressive intent.
Full result
Winner: Desert Shadow (GB) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Desert Shadow Fox #2 11/4
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2
Thursday Girl Fox #3 3/1
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3
Ascending Star Fox #1 7/4
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4
Tavana 14/1
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5
Sunny Smile 25/1
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6
Lunario 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3