Peaceful Charm sets a trap; Tall Trees springs it
Appleby's debutante is the market's darling — but the form horses deserve more respect at the prices
Peaceful Charm arrives at Newmarket's July course as a 4/7 jolly with no public form to speak of, carrying nothing but Charlie Appleby's reputation and William Buick in the saddle. That combination has won races before it deserved to, and it will again. Her SR of 156 is the highest in the field by some distance and the model scores her top at 6.05 — both facts I have registered and neither of which I am simply going to ignore. But maiden fillies' races on the July course have a habit of embarrassing the market when a well-touted debutante meets a filly who has already looked the track in the eye and found something to like about it.
Tall Trees has done exactly that. Brian Meehan's filly carries a form line of 58 — not a sequence that screams certainty, but read it carefully: a fifth on debut, then a much-improved eighth that the raw figure flatters downward. Her SR of 150 sits six pounds clear of Madam Secretary and twenty-two pounds clear of Scommessa Sicura. The model has her second overall at 5.98, and Tom Marquand, who has been quietly excellent this season, takes the ride at 13/2. Peaceful Charm may be the horse everyone expects to win. Tall Trees is the horse I think actually will.
The Shape of the Race
With a field of ten 2-year-old fillies over seven furlongs on good-to-firm Newmarket, the pace question is genuinely interesting. Scommessa Sicura's consistent form of 222 suggests she runs her races prominently and will look to press the pace from the front rank. Blue Sign has shown early pace before. Peaceful Charm, as a Godolphin debutante, will be handily positioned by Buick — likely tracking the pace in second or third. Tall Trees and Madam Secretary are both suited to a mid-to-rear position with a long run to the wire. A genuine gallop set by Scommessa Sicura suits the closers, and seven furlongs at Newmarket with fast ground is exactly the scenario where a horse with a stride can motor home.
The Storylines
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Debutante vs. proven course shape Peaceful Charm's SR of 156 is compelling on paper, but she has never raced publicly — Tall Trees has already learned how to finish a race.
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Marquand booking quietly significant Tom Marquand's booking for Tall Trees at 13/2 stands out; retained riders don't take 13/2 shots in Class 2 fillies' maidens without confidence from the yard.
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Moore on the O'Brien runner Ryan Moore riding Madam Secretary for Aidan O'Brien at 17/2 is never a throwaway booking, making her the each-way insurance the market may be underrating.
How it Finishes
LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.
Tall Trees
SR 150, model-second at 5.98, positive market-move driver, and Marquand booked — the improving form arc from debut to second run points to a filly ready to graduate today.
Peaceful Charm
SR 156 is the class of the field and Buick won't be far back — but a debutante at 4/7 conceding nothing to exposed rivals is a short price for an unknown quantity.
Madam Secretary
SR 148 and Ryan Moore for O'Brien at 17/2 is a combination that routinely runs into a place; a third on debut gives her a clear form line over the others outside the top two.
Scommessa Sicura
Three consecutive seconds — form of 222 — shows Balding's filly is consistent and honest, but SR of 98 means the principals are in a different class once the pace tells.
Mr Fox has gone with Peaceful Charm at 4/7, and I understand the reasoning — SR 156, Appleby and Buick, model-topper. On a different day I might follow. But 4/7 on a maiden with no public form in a field that includes Tall Trees at 13/2 and Madam Secretary at 17/2 is a price that asks you to pay now for a promise. The market-move driver on Tall Trees in the model is the signal I keep coming back to: that filly is being backed with information, not sentiment. I am taking Tall Trees win at 13/2, two units. Conviction band: medium. The danger is real and her name is Peaceful Charm — but the price is wrong on the favourite and right on the winner.