LLaMa Letters · The Honest Record
Race by Race
LLaMa’s 1-2-3-4 for every race she’s ever written on — graded pick by pick, straight from the Racing API. Nothing edited, nothing hidden.
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Cape Fear
7/4Top SR at 96, confirmed going fit, 5lb lighter than last run, Oisin Murphy in the saddle at 22% strike rate, and a winning last run. Every signal aligns.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Parisian Scholar
3/1SR 88 and an 8lb weight drop make him the most credible threat; the steamer to 3/1 confirms yard confidence even if he falls just short of Cape Fear's class.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Wonder
13/2SR 81 in third place overall, James Fanshawe's yard is hot at 23% over 14 days, and a 5lb weight reduction gives Wonder an each-way shout at 13/2.
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4Predicted 4th
Melek Alreeh
7/1SR 85 is respectable but a 161-day absence, a 5lb rise, and David Simcock's yard at just 8% make Melek Alreeh a closer-home candidate rather than a winner.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Secret History
10/1SR 87, 6lb lighter than last run, Good to Firm ground a positive fit, distance positive — William Buick doesn't take losing rides in handicaps at this level at this price.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Exposure
11/4Gosden at 50% in 14 days is a warning that cannot be ignored; Ryan Moore at 28% career strike rate keeps Exposure firmly in the danger column despite the short price.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Harlequin Angel
18/1Backed from 50/1 to 18/1, positive going and distance signals, dropped in class, and a Chapple-Hyam yard running at 22% — the market move is too loud to ignore each-way.
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4Predicted 4th
Crimson Spirit
9/2SR 88 leads the field on raw rating but a 10lb weight increase and a drifting market from 4/1 to 9/2 argue the handicapper has found him out this time.
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Missed the frame 1/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Double Rush
7/1Three straight wins, going and distance fit both positive, the sharpest market move in the race, and Oisin Murphy at 22% in the saddle — the model's top score of 6.85 is earned.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Mission Central
6/1SR:123 sits joint-top with Almeraq, the form string reads 10-111, and Ryan Moore at 28% is a serious booking — model second at 6.40 and the weight advantage (9-2 vs 9-8) is real.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Almeraq
11/2SR:125 is the highest in the field and the form string (21F-11) shows class, but the Δdrifter tag and a weight rise of 3lb temper the enthusiasm — each-way claims hold.
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4Predicted 4th
Venetian Sun
4/1SR:125 joint-top and the form string (13-011) shows two recent wins, but the Δdrifter tag and unresolved going and distance fit queries keep this to fourth.
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Winner placed 4/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Abraham Lincoln
5/6SR 161 is 52 points clear of Al Hudaiba, Ryan Moore aboard at 28% career conversion, and the deterministic model scores him top at 6.81 — every signal points the same direction.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Al Hudaiba
9/4Appleby at 27% gives genuine confidence; the 8lb weight drop and a form read of two wins from three attempts makes him the clearest danger despite the SR gap.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Silver Dominion
28/1SR 132, a 4lb weight drop, and Oisin Murphy at 22% career strike rate make him the each-way play at 28/1 — the model ranks him second in the scoring despite the class rise.
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4Predicted 4th
Pikachu
17/2SR 150 is genuinely competitive but the drift from 4/1 to 17/2 is too consistent a negative signal to ignore — market knows something, and 13% trainer strike rate does not offset …
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Winner placed 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Elarak
7/2SR 105 leads the field by nine points; Charles Hills at 20% strike rate, GF:+ going, and a 4-4-2 recent sequence at the same class make this the strongest combined profile.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Back In Black
5/1James Fanshawe's yard is 23% over 14 days, D:+ and GF:+ both tick, and the 24-432 form string shows consistent involvement — danger if he gets an uncontested lead.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Great Acclaim
13/2SR 96 with GF:+ and a 0323 recent sequence — consistently placing without winning, but Eve Johnson Houghton at 19% and light weight make him a legitimate place threat.
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4Predicted 4th
Two Tribes
9/1The steamer angle at 9/1 catches the eye, but D:- and GF:- both point the wrong way and his form string shows a 12000 sequence — place claims at best.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Moonfall
11/4SR-leader at 106 in a field that maxes at 101 elsewhere; comes here off a win 22 days ago with a form trajectory pointing firmly upward — that ability gap closes out rivals in the…
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Wechaad
9/2Distance-plus flag, SR 101, Ryan Moore at 28% career strike — races prominently and gives Moonfall the most sustained danger through the closing stages.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Alfaraz
11/26lb weight drop and Oisin Murphy in the saddle at a career 22% strike rate make Alfaraz the value play at 11/2 — drops into a place slot at a price that compensates the class rise.
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4Predicted 4th
Eklleem
9/2Three consecutive starts as favourite, SR 96, and Haggas's yard ticking — runs his race without quite owning the ground Moonfall and Wechaad claim ahead of him.
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Winner placed 3/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Machadadorp
7/2SR 100 tops the field; she arrives 8lb lower than her last win, with Murphy at 22% and a form sequence of back-to-back victories. The class rise is real but the weight concession …
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Song N Dance
7/2Form of 211-22 at this class level is the most consistent record in the race and the Balding — sorry, Woods — yard is running at 20%. If the 62-day absence is forgiven she'll be f…
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Planet Seeker
8/1Beckett at 25% is the field's form yard; Planet Seeker is lightly raced and has been backed. SR 89 has room to improve and the weight (8-11) is manageable.
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4Predicted 4th
True Test
7/2William Buick at 19% keeps True Test honest, but a form line containing a 250/1 and 50/1 starting price suggests raw inexperience — the model's form negative is real here.
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Winner called 3/4 in frame · Winner
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🥇Predicted 1st
Haffner
10/11SR 158 leads the field by four points; backed from 18/1 to 10/11 between debut and today. Ryan Moore at 28% with O'Brien at 19% in 14-day form — the evidence only points one way.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Al Wathba
9/4SR 154 and Appleby's yard at a 27% 14-day strike rate makes this the clear danger; Buick's booking confirms stable confidence on a debut runner.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Subscription
17/2SR 145 is the third-highest in the field and Murphy's 22% career strike rate keeps this live despite the drift — best of the rest at a workable price.
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4Predicted 4th
Sioux River
14/1SR 138 and Varian's 19% yard form give Sioux River a slim each-way case; the drift to 14/1 is a concern but the trainer tick partially offsets it.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Toastmaster
7/4SR 88 leads the field by five points, last-run winner, strong market move, Oisin Murphy booked — every material signal points here.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
Lion of Mali
11/2Form string 112151 is the most consistent in the race bar Toastmaster; SR 79 and good-to-firm going suit, but market drift is a concern.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Aqua Bear
5/1SR 83 is second-highest in the field and the model ranks him second overall on speed and market drivers — each-way claims are genuine.
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4Predicted 4th
Sierra Sands
8/1Ryan Moore's booking elevates Sierra Sands above her SR 74 rating; form driver is positive and the class is not beyond her range.
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Missed the frame 2/4 in frame
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🥇Predicted 1st
Our Cody
5/1Class-drop and speed signals are his strongest drivers; Moore's booking at 5/1 confirms stable confidence that the model's negative trainer flag doesn't override.
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🥈Predicted 2nd
U S S Charleston
12/1The model's top pick by a clear margin on market-move alone; a three-year-old on a career-best trajectory at 12/1 with weight relief at 8-9.
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🥉Predicted 3rd
Rapper's Delight
13/2SR 85, best speed driver in Richard Spencer's dual-runner entry, and front-running style should see him fight out the frame if the pace suits.
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4Predicted 4th
Twilight Calls
17/2Form reads 658612 — an eight-year-old who finished second last time shows course-level consistency and Saffie Osborne won't be caught cold from the gate.
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