Adaay Of Scarlett Can Break The Odds Barrier
Proven back-to-back form gives Hugo Palmer's filly the edge in a wide-open Coventry
The Coventry Stakes is the race that separates the genuinely precocious from the merely promising, and this year's edition — twenty-two runners, every single one unpriced and carrying 9-3 — is about as democratic a Group 2 as you'll find at Royal Ascot. When the market is silent, you go back to the form book, and the form book has a clear message: the horses who have already been asked serious questions and answered them are the ones worth trusting on the Berkshire straight. That narrows the field considerably.
Adaay Of Scarlett is my horse. SR 145, the highest figure in this field, and a form line of 112 that reads in the right direction — she won last time out and she won the time before that. Hugo Palmer has timed her campaign perfectly, Billy Loughnane keeps the ride, and she is meeting every rival on level weights. Great Barrier Reef (SR 143, form 11) and Night In Vegas (SR 143, form 11) are the only other unbeaten-or-near-unbeaten runners who get close to her on the ratings, but neither has faced a field of this quality and neither has the SR advantage Adaay Of Scarlett brings to the table. In a race where everyone is guessing, I am backing the filly with the best number and the most recent winning evidence. Adaay Of Scarlett wins the 2026 Coventry Stakes.
The Shape of the Race
Twenty-two two-year-olds over six furlongs at Ascot usually means a proper gallop from the off, and I expect exactly that here. Arizona Raider (form 531) has shown pace to force from the front, and Cut A Dash (form 1) won on debut with prominent racing — Sean Levey will put him right up there. Night In Vegas is also a front-runner by nature under Charles Bishop. Adaay Of Scarlett has raced prominently in both her wins and Billy Loughnane will slot her just behind the pace-setters, travelling with them rather than chasing them. A true pace suits a horse with her finishing resolution and her superior SR — the race shape plays directly into her hands.
The Storylines
-
Palmer's filly peaks at the right moment Hugo Palmer has pitched Adaay Of Scarlett into a Group 2 off back-to-back wins, a confident trainer move that screams belief in a fully forward two-year-old.
-
O'Brien sends two bullets Aidan O'Brien saddles both Great Barrier Reef (Wayne Lordan) and Confucius (Ryan Moore), splitting stable resources in a way that can muddy the market and create value elsewhere.
-
Unbeaten trio clash at the top Adaay Of Scarlett (112 form), Great Barrier Reef (11) and Night In Vegas (11) are the only runners with multiple wins — the Coventry will separate them once and for all.
How it Finishes
LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.
Adaay Of Scarlett
Top SR in the field at 145, back-to-back wins at rising class, and Loughnane retaining the ride signals stable confidence. This is the horse with the most corroborating evidence.
Great Barrier Reef
SR 143 and a perfect 11 form gives the O'Brien-Lordan combination strong claims; two wins suggests a proper two-year-old, just edged on our ratings by Adaay Of Scarlett.
Night In Vegas
Unbeaten record and SR 143 matching Great Barrier Reef, but Eve Johnson Houghton stepping up sharply in class; third is the honest ceiling given the evidence available today.
Mrair
SR 140 and a progressive 21 form under Oisin Murphy for George Scott; the most interesting of the 140-range runners and capable of grabbing a place if the pace suits off-pace stalking.
With no market prices available I am recommending a win bet on Adaay Of Scarlett at the opening show, whatever that turns out to be — take no shorter than 5/1 each-way, accept win-only at 3/1 or bigger. I am staking 20 units win. The conviction here is medium: the SR evidence and form narrative are clear, but this is a wide-open Group 2 with twenty-two runners and several unexposed types who could be anything. What I won't do is talk myself out of the best number in the race. Adaay Of Scarlett has earned her place at the top of this letter, and I back what I believe.