The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 15 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
17:30 Southwell (AW) Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Lay Grove Street

Price
4/5
Liability
£0.80
Chance of losing
72%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 50%
Sly Man says fav wins 28%
Lay edge +22pp The market rates the fav 22 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 103 vs field mean 133.5 (z = -2.24)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 19:00 Southwell (AW)
    Lovely Dark Angel
    Model vs market SR 78 vs field mean 119.6 (z = -1.67)
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 77%
  2. 14:12 Curragh
    Lunar Empress
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    21/13
    Loses 79%
  3. 13:55 Perth
    Old Habits
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 63%
  4. 15:22 Curragh
    Almazann
    Model vs market SR 96 vs field mean 111.6 (z = -0.55)
    Fav won
    6/5
    Loses 69%
  5. 12:55 Perth
    Eastern Fire
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 64%