The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 13 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
18:00 Wolverhampton (AW) Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Lay Bella Angelina

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
73%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 27%
Lay edge +21pp The market rates the fav 21 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:35 Punchestown
    Danny Power
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 68%
  2. 18:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Al Widyan
    Model vs market SR 84 vs field mean 109.0 (z = -0.61)
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 75%
  3. 16:52 Southwell
    Winston's Oath
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 72%
  4. 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Midnight Media
    Trainer form drift Trainer William Muir & Chris Grassick: 2/41 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 69%
  5. 15:04 Leicester
    Lady Phillips
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    7/4
    Loses 75%