The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 12 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify

17:30 Newcastle (AW) Free Tips On attheraces.com EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Great Balls O'Fire

Price: 8/13
Liability: £0.62
Chance of losing: 75%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 55%

Sly Man says fav wins 25%

Lay edge +30pp The market rates the fav 30 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 91 vs field mean 127.2 (z = -2.26)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

16:12 Kempton (AW)

Showcasing Glory

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

8/11

Loses 78%
16:28 Newcastle (AW)

Indhaar

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

5/6

Loses 67%
13:47 Musselburgh

Motawaared

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Lay landed

6/5

Loses 72%
15:30 Roscommon

Big Cypress

Model vs market SR 84 vs field mean 110.5 (z = -1.05)
Lay landed

21/13

Loses 75%
15:47 Musselburgh

Dandy Magic

Class rise Today rank 4 vs last-time-out rank 5 (delta -1). Rising in class.
Lay landed

3/2

Loses 73%