The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 10 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
13:50 Newmarket Native Trail Zetland Stakes (Group 3)

Lay Drumbeat

Price
Evs
Liability
£1.00
Chance of losing
74%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 45%
Sly Man says fav wins 26%
Lay edge +18pp The market rates the fav 18 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:00 Newmarket
    Desert Castle
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    8/13
    Loses 62%
  2. 14:15 Naas
    Zelani
    Trainer form drift Trainer D K Weld: 3/40 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 68%
  3. 17:30 Hexham
    I've Got A Friend
    Class rise Today rank 5 vs last-time-out rank 6 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  4. 14:20 Hexham
    Dark Tide Rising
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 71%
  5. 16:15 Newmarket
    Desert Romance
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 73%