The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 9 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
14:57 Newmarket Bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1)

Lay Musical Times

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
67%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 33%
Lay edge +27pp The market rates the fav 27 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:13 Downpatrick
    Euro Agent
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 77%
  2. 16:05 Kempton (AW)
    Bidsta
    Model vs market SR 93 vs field mean 110.9 (z = -0.49)
    Fav won
    8/13
    Loses 71%
  3. 13:22 Chepstow
    Cooltobecareless
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  4. 13:57 Chepstow
    Saint Jeannais
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 63%
  5. 17:45 Kempton (AW)
    News
    Class rise Today rank 3 vs last-time-out rank 5 (delta -2). Rising in class.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 68%