The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 7 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
17:30 Kempton (AW) Unibet Supports Safer Gambling EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Twelve Bars

Price
10/11
Liability
£0.91
Chance of losing
72%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 47%
Sly Man says fav wins 28%
Lay edge +19pp The market rates the fav 19 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:29 Nottingham
    Castlerock Girl
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    6/5
    Loses 72%
  2. 14:15 Navan
    Almeiyda
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 77%
  3. 16:35 Worcester
    Brookside La
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    3/2
    Loses 73%
  4. 14:05 Worcester
    Dundee Law
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    21/13
    Loses 74%
  5. 19:30 Kempton (AW)
    Kiniro
    Trainer form drift Trainer Dan Horsford: 0/7 = 0% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    21/13
    Loses 73%