The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 6 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
13:45 Galway Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle

Lay Young Rebel

Price
9/17
Liability
£0.53
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 58%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +28pp The market rates the fav 28 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:15 Galway
    Way With Words
    Trainer form drift Trainer J P Dempsey: 0/8 = 0% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 68%
  2. 16:55 Southwell (AW)
    Zafaan
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  3. 20:00 Southwell (AW)
    Affettuoso
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 69%
  4. 17:01 Leicester
    Magic Music
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    7/4
    Loses 76%
  5. 14:20 Galway
    Inthenickoftime
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    21/13
    Loses 73%