The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 4 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
13:55 Curragh Bermingham Cameras Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden

Lay Hmas Perth

Price
9/17
Liability
£0.53
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 58%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +26pp The market rates the fav 26 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:01 Uttoxeter
    Governors Rock
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  2. 13:20 Curragh
    Pirate Anne Bonny
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    3/2
    Loses 72%
  3. 13:35 Killarney
    Astelia
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    5/2
    Loses 80%