The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 3 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

13:00 Newmarket £200,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Night In Vegas

Price: 4/7
Liability: £0.57
Chance of losing: 63%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 57%

Sly Man says fav wins 37%

Lay edge +20pp The market rates the fav 20 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton: 5/85 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

19:00 Southwell (AW)

Cloud Forest

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

6/5

Loses 78%
14:37 Fontwell

Eben Zaabeel

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Lay landed

18/13

Loses 72%
13:42 Redcar

Charted Course

Model vs market SR 98 vs field mean 132.4 (z = -1.83)
Fav won

18/13

Loses 72%
15:10 Fontwell

Salkadan

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

11/10

Loses 66%
19:30 Southwell (AW)

New Image

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

21/13

Loses 73%