The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 2 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
18:30 Dundalk (AW) Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)

Lay Golden Ring

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +26pp The market rates the fav 26 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:38 Hexham
    Ride Like A Girl
    Model vs market SR 118 vs field mean 126.7 (z = -0.55)
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 73%
  2. 18:15 Newcastle (AW)
    Asheyra
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 75%
  3. 17:08 Hexham
    Stay Hopeful
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    6/5
    Loses 77%
  4. 19:00 Dundalk (AW)
    Littlepacer
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    21/13
    Loses 77%
  5. 14:13 Hexham
    Dante's Inferno
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 72%