The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 30 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day Medium conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
14:55 Yarmouth Bodhi Solutions - Exceeding Expectations In Construction Handicap Stakes

Lay Kinswoman

Price
5/4
Liability
£1.25
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 40%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +8pp The market rates the fav 8 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:20 Yarmouth
    Rocsane
    Model vs market SR 83 vs field mean 123.1 (z = -1.72)
    Lay landed
    9/4
    Loses 79%
  2. 14:15 Beverley
    Jm Jungle
    Trainer form drift Recent form '490357' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -0.25.
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 69%