The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 29 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
15:03 Curragh Heider Family Stables Round Tower Stakes (Group 3)

Lay Great Barrier Reef

Price
4/5
Liability
£0.80
Chance of losing
66%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 50%
Sly Man says fav wins 34%
Lay edge +16pp The market rates the fav 16 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:18 Curragh
    Darkness Falls
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 62%
  2. 13:40 Sandown
    Tall Trees
    Model vs market SR 103 vs field mean 136.7 (z = -2.16)
    Fav won
    2/1
    Loses 76%