The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 28 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
15:40 Wexford Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle

Lay Game Point

Price
9/17
Liability
£0.53
Chance of losing
79%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 58%
Sly Man says fav wins 21%
Lay edge +38pp The market rates the fav 38 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 115 vs field mean 130.3 (z = -1.60)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:40 Fontwell
    Salkadan
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    2/3
    Loses 72%
  2. 17:50 Fontwell
    Youdecide
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 69%
  3. 15:25 Thirsk
    Baarberini
    Model vs market SR 82 vs field mean 121.1 (z = -2.04)
    5/4
    Loses 72%