The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 27 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
15:14 Navan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Optional Claiming Maiden

Lay Leadlight

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +27pp The market rates the fav 27 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:55 Lingfield (AW)
    Royal County Glory
    Trainer form drift Trainer Jack Jones: 2/30 = 7% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 70%
  2. 15:22 Lingfield (AW)
    Enoch
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 69%
  3. 19:30 Southwell (AW)
    Night Of Gold
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 68%