The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 26 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

18:20 Kempton (AW) Unibet/british Stallion Studs Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

Lay Al Wathba

Price: 9/17
Liability: £0.53
Chance of losing: 73%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 58%

Sly Man says fav wins 27%

Lay edge +32pp The market rates the fav 32 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 104 vs field mean 129.8 (z = -1.90)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

14:45 Catterick

Royale Union

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

10/11

Loses 73%
14:15 Catterick

Mugheer

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

11/10

Loses 74%
18:05 Bellewstown

Fastnet Crystal

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

5/6

Loses 64%
19:38 Bellewstown

Blue Trix

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

5/4

Loses 72%
16:25 Bellewstown

Thesilverbridle

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

6/5

Loses 70%