The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 25 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
15:00 Lingfield (AW) Advice You Can Trust At gambling.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Lazurite

Price
9/17
Liability
£0.53
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 58%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +29pp The market rates the fav 29 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:30 Lingfield (AW)
    Dialstone
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Void
    2/3
    Loses 68%
  2. 14:15 Musselburgh
    Vegasmile
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 75%
  3. 16:20 Bellewstown
    Karrygrant
    Model vs market SR 89 vs field mean 114.1 (z = -1.10)
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 71%
  4. 17:40 Stratford
    French Diablo
    Trainer form drift Trainer Max Comley: 0/5 = 0% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 68%
  5. 15:30 Lingfield (AW)
    Let's Go Hugo
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ollie Pears: 1/18 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 67%