The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 24 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:51 Ballinrobe Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle

Lay Coolishael

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Ross O'Sullivan: 1/56 = 2% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:48 Windsor
    Camarda Rc
    Class rise Today rank 3 vs last-time-out rank 5 (delta -2). Rising in class.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 68%
  2. 14:45 Musselburgh
    Forest Berry
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 62%
  3. 18:00 Ballinrobe
    Cool Native
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Void
    32/17
    Loses 79%
  4. 15:30 Brighton
    Blue Anthem
    Trainer form drift Recent form '950088' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -0.67.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 70%
  5. 20:00 Ballinrobe
    Zara's Dream
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 69%