The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 23 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day Medium conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
15:30 Naas Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden

Lay Zoar

Price
10/11
Liability
£0.91
Chance of losing
65%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 47%
Sly Man says fav wins 35%
Lay edge +11pp The market rates the fav 11 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien: 2/32 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:38 Worcester
    Down To Business
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 70%