The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 22 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:50 Redcar Watch Racing TV Now Selling Stakes

Lay Bigalo

Price
8/11
Liability
£0.73
Chance of losing
66%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 52%
Sly Man says fav wins 34%
Lay edge +17pp The market rates the fav 17 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Roger Fell: 2/39 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:00 Killarney
    Golden Handshake
    Trainer form drift Recent form 'U' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -1.50.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  2. 15:50 Chester
    Ivory Moon
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 63%
  3. 17:30 Killarney
    Teofil
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 65%
  4. 13:34 Newmarket (July)
    Great Balls O'Fire
    Trainer form drift Trainer Richard Spencer: 3/48 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 71%
  5. 13:25 Killarney
    Reaching High
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 68%