The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 21 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
18:35 Kilbeggan Peadar's Bar Moate Maiden Hurdle

Lay Dad Sez

Price
8/11
Liability
£0.73
Chance of losing
77%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 52%
Sly Man says fav wins 23%
Lay edge +29pp The market rates the fav 29 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:57 Salisbury
    Spirit Of Lyra
    Model vs market SR 90 vs field mean 127.6 (z = -2.68)
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 79%
  2. 14:00 Newmarket (July)
    Beguiled
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    4/7
    Loses 69%
  3. 14:45 Ffos Las
    Oviedo
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    2/3
    Loses 69%