The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 20 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify

18:54 Newcastle (AW) Trusted Betting Site Reviews Gambling.com Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Lay Queen's Hame

Price: 9/17
Liability: £0.53
Chance of losing: 76%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 58%

Sly Man says fav wins 24%

Lay edge +34pp The market rates the fav 34 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 86 vs field mean 119.0 (z = -1.69)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

14:10 Lingfield (AW)

Inglewood

Model vs market SR 79 vs field mean 110.8 (z = -1.10)
Lay landed

8/11

Loses 74%
14:45 Lingfield (AW)

One Number

Model vs market SR 107 vs field mean 129.8 (z = -1.58)
Fav won

10/11

Loses 71%
14:25 York

Sun Goddess

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

8/11

Loses 62%
17:27 Leopardstown

Banks Of The Boyne

Model vs market SR 88 vs field mean 123.4 (z = -1.72)
Fav won

7/4

Loses 81%
15:35 York

Kalpana

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

11/10

Loses 67%