The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 19 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
20:18 Sligo WTW Willis Insurance Brokers Flat Race

Lay Run For Fun

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +18pp The market rates the fav 18 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 18:30 Kempton (AW)
    Algaihabane
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 68%
  2. 14:05 Carlisle
    Guadalevin
    Model vs market SR 95 vs field mean 133.6 (z = -2.19)
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 72%
  3. 17:25 Kempton (AW)
    Withtearsinmyeyes
    Model vs market SR 94 vs field mean 117.0 (z = -0.96)
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 68%
  4. 15:35 York
    Ombudsman
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 65%