The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 18 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:08 Lingfield (AW) Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

Lay My Old Mate

Price
8/11
Liability
£0.73
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 52%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:00 Lingfield (AW)
    Romotoso
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 74%
  2. 19:45 Roscommon
    Magnum Cor
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 66%
  3. 18:15 Roscommon
    Green Dreamer
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Void
    4/5
    Loses 64%
  4. 14:45 Chepstow
    Soeur De Flash
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 73%
  5. 18:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Javelot
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 65%