The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 17 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
17:55 Windsor Play The Matchbook Match 6 Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Mithaaly

Price
9/17
Liability
£0.53
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 58%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +29pp The market rates the fav 29 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 20:10 Wolverhampton (AW)
    James Choice
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    21/13
    Loses 74%
  2. 15:00 Lingfield (AW)
    Justice Court
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 66%