The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 16 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
15:10 Southwell (AW) LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB Race)

Lay Prosperity

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +25pp The market rates the fav 25 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:55 Tramore
    Lady Lena
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    8/13
    Loses 67%
  2. 15:20 Curragh
    Zarak Pasha
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 72%
  3. 13:45 Tramore
    Speed For Fun
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 70%
  4. 15:30 Tramore
    Future Prospect
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    21/13
    Loses 72%