Ireland 3yo

Hard To Believe (IRE)

T: Andrew Balding · J: Jason Watson · O: Jayar Investments Mrs L E Ramsden

By Make Believe (GB) out of Heat Of The Day (GB)

Form 61-1713

6/1 Current odds

3/6 W/R

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Active

6 runs
3 wins
placed
50% strike
13 d off
88 best RPR

Recent form

Form figures 61-1713 13 days off

3 1 7 1 1 6

At Newmarket (July) 1/2 1 win · 2 placed

On Good to Firm 0/1 0 wins · 1 placed

Over 1m6f 0/1 0 wins · 1 placed

Best RPR 88 Career peak

Best TS 69 Career peak

Deep analytics

Career trajectory, going + distance lenses, connections history

Career Trajectory

last 6 runs · form score 0–100

Win
Placed
Mid-pack
Rear
DNF
OR mark

Peak form: 100
Mean: 63
Win %: 50%
Placed %: 67%
Trend: Climbing

Course Record

5 venues

Career strike 67%; best at Newmarket (July) (100% from 2 runs).

Newmarket (July) 100% 1-1-2
Bath 100% 1-0-1
Wolverhampton (AW) 100% 1-0-1
Salisbury 0% 0-0-1
York 0% 0-0-1

Connections History

3 jockeys · 1 trainer

Jockeys

Oisin Murphy 67% 2-0-3
Rob Hornby 50% 1-0-2
Jason Watson NOW 100% 0-1-1

Trainers

Andrew Balding NOW 67% 3-1-6

Going Record

6 classifiable runs

Allrounder Handles a range — peak 67% on Good, but no surface bias jumps out.

Firm — 0 runs
Good to Firm 100% 0-1-1
Good 67% 2-0-3
Good to Soft 100% 1-0-1
Soft — 0 runs
Heavy 0% 0-0-1

Distance Record

6 classifiable runs

Specialist Pure mile horse — 67% in-the-money at 7f – 1m1f.

Sprint ≤ 6f — 0 runs
Seven 6½ – 7f — 0 runs
Mile 7f – 1m1f 67% 2-0-3
Middle 1m1f – 1m4f 50% 1-0-2
Staying ≥ 1m4f 100% 0-1-1

Race history

6 of 6 runs

Date Race Pos Going Dist Jockey Odds

4 Jul 2026 Betway Bet 10 Get 40 Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newmarket (July) Class 2 3rd/7 1.5 Good To Firm 1m6f Jason Watson OR 83 9/2

19 Jun 2026 Zyn Frontrunner Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Newmarket (July) Class 4 1st/6 +0 Good 1m4f Rob Hornby OR 80 9/4F

14 May 2026 Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap (GBBPlus Race) York Class 4 7th/14 .5 Good 1m4f Oisin Murphy OR 80 2/1F

23 Mar 2026 Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C/D) (GBB Race) Wolverhampton (AW) Class 4 1st/5 +0 Standard 1m1½f Oisin Murphy OR 77 4/6F

9 Oct 2025 BetWright Bet The Wright Way EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C/D) (GBB Race) (Div I) Bath Class 5 1st/10 +0 Good To Soft 1m Oisin Murphy 10/11F

12 Sep 2025 Skytree Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A B C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Salisbury Class 4 6th/10 .5 Heavy 1m Rob Hornby 10/1

Connections

Trainer: Andrew Balding 19%
Jockey: Jason Watson 12%
Owner: Jayar Investments Mrs L E Ramsden
Sire: Make Believe (GB)
Dam: Heat Of The Day (GB)
Dam sire: Raven's Pass
Country: Ireland
Age: 3yo

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