Ireland 4yo

First Instinct (GB)

T: William Haggas · J: Harry Davies · O: Dunchurch Lodge Stud Company

By Bated Breath (GB) out of Proportional (GB)

Form 5410-902550

12/1 Current odds

4/17 W/R

113 RPR

107 TS

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Active

17 runs
4 wins
placed
24% strike
13 d off
123 best RPR

Recent form

Form figures 5410-902550 13 days off

0 5 5 2 0 9

At Ascot 0/2 0 wins · 0 placed

On Good to Firm 1/8 1 win · 3 placed

Best RPR 123 Career peak

Best TS 114 Career peak

Deep analytics

Career trajectory, going + distance lenses, connections history

Career Trajectory

last 17 runs · form score 0–100

Win
Placed
Mid-pack
Rear
DNF
OR mark

Peak form: 100
Mean: 51
Win %: 24%
Placed %: 47%
Trend: Fading

Course Record

12 venues

Career strike 47%; best at Haydock (100% from 2 runs).

Haydock 100% 1-1-2
Newbury 50% 1-0-2
York 50% 0-1-2
Ascot 0% 0-0-2
Newmarket 0% 0-0-2
Ayr 100% 0-1-1
Bath 100% 0-1-1
Cork 100% 1-0-1
Nottingham 100% 1-0-1
Beverley 0% 0-0-1
Longchamp (FR) 0% 0-0-1
Naas (IRE) 0% 0-0-1

Connections History

6 jockeys · 1 trainer

Jockeys

Cieren Fallon 29% 0-2-7
Tom Marquand 67% 3-1-6
Chris Hayes 100% 1-0-1
Jason Hart 100% 0-1-1
Harry Davies NOW 0% 0-0-1
Joanna Mason 0% 0-0-1

Trainers

William Haggas NOW 47% 4-4-17

Going Record

16 classifiable runs

Allrounder Handles a range — peak 67% on Good to Soft, but no surface bias jumps out.

Firm — 0 runs
Good to Firm 38% 1-2-8
Good 60% 1-2-5
Good to Soft 67% 2-0-3
Soft — 0 runs
Heavy — 0 runs

Distance Record

17 classifiable runs

Leaning Best at sprint trips (50% itm) but capable elsewhere.

Sprint ≤ 6f 50% 4-4-16
Seven 6½ – 7f 0% 0-0-1
Mile 7f – 1m1f — 0 runs
Middle 1m1f – 1m4f — 0 runs
Staying ≥ 1m4f — 0 runs

Race history

10 of 10 runs

Date Race Pos Going Dist Jockey Odds

3 Oct 2026 Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Ascot Class 1 10th/11 0.05 Good To Firm 5f Harry Davies OR 104 20/1

19 Sep 2026 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newbury Class 1 5th/11 .5 Good To Firm 5f Cieren Fallon OR 105 6/1

23 Aug 2026 Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Ballyogan Stakes (Group 3) Naas (IRE) Class 1 5th/8 2.75 Good 6f Cieren Fallon OR 105 15/8F

10 Jul 2026 William Hill Summer Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) York Class 1 2nd/13 0.3 Good To Firm 6f Cieren Fallon OR 105 11/1

16 Jun 2026 King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) Ascot Class 1 22th/26 2.5 Good To Firm 5f Cieren Fallon OR 106 66/1

2 May 2026 HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Newmarket Class 1 9th/14 0.3 Good To Firm 5f Tom Marquand OR 107 25/1

5 Oct 2025 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (2yo+) (Sprint Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) 13th/17 .75 Very Soft 5f Cieren Fallon 23/1

20 Sep 2025 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newbury Class 1 1st/11 +0 Good To Soft 5f34y Tom Marquand OR 100 11/1

30 Aug 2025 William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed) Beverley Class 1 4th/9 0 Good To Firm 5f Joanna Mason OR 102 7/1

11 Jul 2025 William Hill Summer Stakes (Fillies & Mares' Group 3) York Class 1 5th/11 1 Good 6f Cieren Fallon OR 104 4/1

Connections

Trainer: William Haggas 23%
Jockey: Harry Davies 13%
Owner: Dunchurch Lodge Stud Company
Sire: Bated Breath (GB)
Dam: Proportional (GB)
Dam sire: Beat Hollow
Country: Ireland
Age: 4yo

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